MS-01: Results Thread #1


334 of 462 Precincts Reporting
CandidatePartyVotesPercent
Travis Childers(D)39,11650%
Greg Davis(R)38,41850%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | Clarion-Ledger

County-by-County Baselines (4/22 and 4/1 results)

9:58PM: DeSoto is almost all in (36/38), narrowing the race.  We still have some very friendly precincts left (Clay, Prentiss) and some not-so-friendly ones (Tate).  Looking optimistic, though.

9:56PM: Grenada is all in, going 49-51 to Davis.  Last time, Davis won it 54-40.

9:49PM: Lee is all in, and Childers wins it 58-42.  It was 58-37 last time.

9:46PM: Now it’s a 2-point race.  A few more DeSoto precincts came in, closing the gap a bit.

9:42PM: Trent tells me that the mood is good at the Childers HQ.  Childers just flipped Lafayette County by 53-47.  It went for Davis by 44-51 last time.

9:35PM: Union came in, going from 39% on 4/22 to 44% tonight for Davis, but Childers stayed at 56%.

9:33PM: Big win in Panola for Cold Chillin’ Travis (57-43), which Davis won by 1 vote last time.

9:28PM: It’s not reflected above or on the AP’s tally, but Childers is at 72% in Clay County with 10 of 14 precincts in.  That would be an improvement over last time by 6 or 7 points.

9:20PM: Now they’re running even in Lowndes with 18 of 22 in.

9:17PM: Webster is all in, and Childers ran ahead by 6 points.  He’s also at 28% in DeSoto with 12 of 38 in.  With the Lowndes performance, this is good news.

9:15PM: New update — Lowndes is now reflected in the total above.

9:11PM: It’s not reflected in the above totals or in the AP’s results, but the Dispatch says that Childers is winning Lowndes by 59-41 with 2/3rds in.  Childers lost this county last time.

9:04PM: 7 of 38 precincts reporting in DeSoto.  Childers is at 26% there — a slight bump from the 17% he got there last time.

9:01PM: Folks, just a reminder — the Clarion-Ledger is your best bet for the fastest results by county.

8:56PM: Childers is up to 59% in Lee — much better.

8:46PM: More numbers in, from Lee and Chickasaw.  Childers is running slightly behind his 4/22 total, but it’s too early to tell just yet with only partial results from these counties.

8:41PM: Winston is in, breaking 6-4 for Childers.  Childers won 4-0 here on 4/22.

8:00PM Eastern: Polls are now closed.  It will probably take a few minutes before the first results trickle in, though, judging from past experience here.  Stay tuned.



Polls close here at 8pm Eastern, so we still have time for some pre-game chatter before we begin liveblogging the reults.

Will Bardwell has a few turnout updates here.  Our friends at Cotton Mouth and the Thorn Papers will be providing local color, as well.

It looks like turnout is up everywhere, but this could be an ominous sign for Childers: DeSoto county is printing extra ballots, which means that they’ll have more than 17,000 votes cast in this election.

178 thoughts on “MS-01: Results Thread #1”

  1. this is griff on the ground in aberdeen in ms-01.  if you can make the time, hit the virtual phonebanking center cited in results thread below.

    we need to focus our efforts on monroe county.

    the population center of monroe is aberdeen. . .i’m making calls here now.

    other monroe county towns:

    amory

    smithville

    parham

    hatley

    becker

    greenwood springs

    new wren

    hamilton

    new hamilton

    remember to say “sir,” “ma’am,” “please,” “thank you,” and refer to groups of people as “y’all.” the plural of “y’all,” for the record, is “all y’all.”

    ok, so i’m being a bit flip.  thanks to davidnyc, trent, cottonmouth and all y’all for your support.  onward!

    best,

    griff

    office manager, childers for congress

  2. Someone on Daily Kos just posted in my diary from this morning that he voted in Tupelo today. The election worker said Lee County walk-in turnout appeared to be on track with three weeks ago but AV balloting was up 3 times as much. I have no idea what it means.

  3. Let’s go Childers! Put a fork into the Republican Party’s fundraising ability!

  4. I’m watching the WV Primary, this race, and a special election race for the Georgia house.  Basically bupkis from all three right now.

  5. Here is some early number crunching from Will Bardwell’s site.

    Turnout was up about 60% at the precinct that he voted at, which was a 50/50 county.

    DeSoto, which is Davis’ bread-and-butter, has seen a turnout spike of about 42%.

    One precinct in Lowndes County was up over 50%. Lowndes went about 60-40 for Davis.

    There is going to need to be a BIG turnout bump in Lee and Prentiss.

    Bottom line–If Lee County is at 10,000 votes, bet on Davis. If it is 14,000 votes, bet on Childers. For Prentiss County, Davis is sitting pretty if turnout is 5000 or less. Anything over 7000 votes, and I really start to like Childers’ chances….

  6. Hopefully, other counties’ high turnout will compensate with over 17,000 in Desoto…also AA turnout will hopefully benefit Childers.

    Just to put this is perspective, this is a R+10 district. We shouldn’t be competitive, but we are. We have forced the RNCC to spend a ton of money – whatever happens we have forced the GOP to defend their territory and they are struggling.

  8. Republicans are good at GOTV, even in LA they did a pretty good job at that. The only question is if Childers and the DCCC similarly boosted turnout.

  9. Are we already giving up and thinking that Davis is going to win this on GOTV efforts? I said winning in this R+10 district would be terribly difficult, and the GOP will do any and everything to not lose this seat. I think they are going “all in” on this, and won’t let this one slip through their hands after they were given another chance after Childers missing 50.000001% by a few hundred votes.

    I hope that Childers can keep it close and make a run at it.  

  10. Last time around DeSoto reported early and it made it appear Childers would get blown out, which was far from the final result (a 49-46 win).

  12. but DailyKos reports exit polls show Hillary winning WV by about a 2-1 margin as expected.  Meaning about a 19-9 delegate edge there.  Not that it means anything considering she’s down by around 150+ delegates…

  13. sitting with my fellow flute buddies and band nerds as well as the bands from the other schools that participated in competition, and we’re biting our nails waiting for the judges to announce the final results. I have had my fair share of both disappointments and pleasant surprises. Let’s hope tonight is more of the latter than the former!

  14. I’m really proud that congressman Gene Taylor (Ms-4th) stepped up to the plate for this race, donating $2,000 to the Childer’s campaign. He even came out for Childer’s $1.25 Gas event!.

    Alot of people attack Taylor as just being a DINO, but the fact is that he’s stayed a Dem all the way through (’89-present) and is going out to help elect a new democratic congressman, just shows how great a Democrat he really is!

    Go Childers!

  15. Still nothing from WV an hour after the primary and nothing from MS 20 minutes after. I need my election results!

    1. but it can still be used as a comparative tool. For example, LA-06 was R+7 and probably less so after Katrina. This is obviously a very tough district.

    2. Childers isn’t your typical Democrat, I applaud him for his stance on the war,which is not as I would expect from a southern Democrat

  18. Winston – April

    Childers 3 – Davis 0

    Winston – May

    Childers 6 – Davis 4

    1. Personally I’m happy Clinton is still in the race, Imagine how bad it would look for Obama if Clinton dropped out and people in WV and Kent. still voted for Clinton over Obama. Still I hope Obama can get these states back for November, Especially Kentucky, I sorta want Mitch McConnell out of the Senate.

  20. unless we know which precincts are reporting, but Childers needs a lot more out of the remaining Lee County precincts.

    1. He represents a ridiculously conservative district and still votes with us around half the time.  He also worked tirelessly to get aid for his district after it was ravaged by Katrina.  

      He also said he’d have punched the FEMA chief Michael Brown in the face if he saw him after the storm.  That alone makes him OK in my book.

  22. Has underperformed in Lee, Chickasaw, and Winston.  Marshall is exactly the same.  However, Wiston had only 10 votes, and Most of Lee and Chickasaw are still out.

      1. Just like I know we’re going to win that Georgia special election I was talking about.  I’m a political junkie who likes to see numbers change. :p

  23. If Childers keeps up the pace, it would be a surplus of 1600 votes compared to about 700 last time. Still impossible to know without knowledge of the precincts.

    1. Looking at how the comments went on here from the last MS-01 election in April (and, understanding that results may come in slower due to higher turnout), you’re right about the results coming around 7:45 Central time.  DeSoto may come around 8:30-9pm Central, and the final counties around 9:30-10pm Central.

      Again, turnout may delay everything, and I don’t know that counties will report in the same pattern as they did last time, but at least that’s somewhat of a guide for patterns tonight.

  25. Too close to call, and I have to get to bed. Been up since 2 in the morning. Hopefully there will be good news when I wake up.  

    1. especially would have this year.  Considering he gets re-elected with 75%+ of the vote every 2 years in Mississippi’s most conservative district alone gives him a strong case.

      1. That only takes into account Bush’s landslide wins over Kerry and Gore in the district.  Does anyone really think Kerry is representative of MS Democrats like Childers?

    1. If Huckabee or Romney would’ve won a state after dropping out, I actually do think that would’ve been humiliating for McCain and people would’ve definitely cared.  So I think it is a good thing, if only for that single point, that Clinton is still in it – the media would’ve had a huge field day if she dropped out after NC/IN and still routed him in a few more states.  Just my take.

      1. I know MS took in like the 2nd highest number of people relocated (after TX).  Anyone know if this this district took in many of them?

      1. I do it all the time, and James is always nice enough to point out my stupidity 🙂

      1. We lead for awhile, DeSoto came in and we were behind, and then later Prentiss + the rest came in and put us over the top again.  

    4. If Davis continues to gain at that rate, it’s going to be a very long night.

  29. Childers is doing about the same so far. It might very well come down to how much Davis can increase turnout in DeSoto and if Childers got a boost in Prentiss and the counties he should have won last time. If he can hold that loss to 2,000, he can pull out a victory. It’s going to be close.

  31. With just 1/3 precincts reporting already about a 900 vote margin, that’s bigger than last time so far.

    1. I love you all! This was my favorite County last election! lol Massive increase in turnout! lol

  33. I’m counting on you!

    I hate to leave at the best part I have a Lab to go to, I hope to get back here as soon as I can

    till then I wish the rest of you guys good luck! I know we can take this seat

    It’s a win-win situation for Democrats, even if we lose we still forced the Republicans spend what little vital money they have left, which won’t look good for them in November!

    1. Childers underperforming a little there, too.  However, you have to remember that there are more precincts to come in.

  35. … finishing it up should net Davis another ~4500 votes.  Meaning, Childers needs to net only 3000 votes elsewhere.  This is eminently doable.

  36. We have to keep Davis under 70% in DeSoto County.  It’ll be bad news if he keeps it above that number.

  37. Add in another 3,500 from Prentiss alone and then a couple more thousand from other counties plus the 2,000 advantage Childers already has, the math is looking very good right now. Davis needs about 8,000+ net votes from remaining precincts in DeSoto and Tate County and I’m still not sure if that would be enough for him.

      2. First precincts don’t look so bad.  Smaller than expected, and more pro-Childers than last time.

      1. because it contains Davis’ stronghold of Southaven, and he polled much higher numbers than Childers did in Prentiss. DeSoto went 81% for Davis and has a higher population, so that’s what concerns me.

  38. April

    46% Childers – 48% Davis

    May

    59% Childers – 41% Davis

    Big improvement, especially vote wise.  

    1. One third of the precincts are in and Childers is 300 votes away from his total in April!

          1. …I’m hoping Obama can have a respectable showing there and really finish Hillary off and shut the corporate media up.

  40. last time we lost in lowndes by 9%

    with the first 14/22 we’re ahead 59-41

    and it’s relatively populous. that could be huge. anybody know if this is the same lowndes of the originaly black-panther-paw symbol “Lowndes Country Freedom Party” fame?

  41. Childers lost there 48%-46% in April, won tonight big 59%-41% will all in.

    Good sign, I think with Yalobusha and the results in Lowndes, he may have muted any gain Davis got in Lee.

    And DeSoto is still looking better with about 1/3 in from the county.  

  44. With some of the new counties pouring in, it looks like Childers has tipped at least 2 from Davis to himself, and he’s running way better in Desoto than last time.  Some other areas aren’t as good, but on balance I am more optimistic now that we may have it.

      1. Regardless, we aren’t seeing the same percentage for Childers in the counties where he was a few weeks ago; but then again, we don’t know the precise precinct that is reporting at this point.

        It’s going to be a long, long night. Regardless, we have to remember that even making this race close is a huge for us, after winning two GOP districts already.

        1. Yeah I totally agree. We might not see things Socially, eye to eye, but economically we get along just fine.

          If you ask me He’d be the perfect Democrat to have taken Trent Lott’s senate seat this November (considering he ended up taking control of Lott’s old house seat)  

  46. Chickasaw is done.  Childers got 73% there, up from 67%.  He added 859 votes.

    Alcorn is done.  Childers lost two points, but still won with 61%.  He added about 900 votes.

    1. I mean precinct comparison because then you can see which precincts are coming in for each county. It’s not going to be available, so don’t worry! It’s just my dream!

  47. None of the vote yet in from Clay and Benton Counties, both of which are likely to go more than 60% Childers.  Half of DeSoto County reporting…so we’re not out of the woods yet.

    1. say, isn’t davis leading by about 1100 votes w/ 7/38 in? (about 2/11)

      wouldn’t that expand to a countywide lead of about 6000 votes? in a county he won by about 8,000 last time? so wouldn’t we be the ones netting comparatively?

  49. Democrats have done a good job with GOTV. Childers increased his margin by 200 votes compared to last time.

        1. it would be best to compare from the April election? Basically whether we’re up or down from that will give us an idea on how the night is going.

          1. Not my favorite Pink Floyd song and I don’t smoke, but I’ll take a cyber cigar right about now.

  51. Davis won by 1 vote.  Childers has about a 650 vote lead with one precinct left.

  52. says frontpage. wish i knew where the number was coming from, but that has the feel of a harbinger of victory… short of a shock out of prentiss/desoto

    1. And the second set of precincts reinforced the first.

      I’ll go out on a limb, and say that we won this.

  53. This is looking good.

    Can I change my prediction to 52-48?

    Also can we get a new thread?  

    1. that footnote of black history was in alabama…

      in other good news, all of yalobusha is in and we won 59-41 , whereas last time we lost by two points. this is looking pretty nifty.

  58. The rural vote is swinging toward Childers it looks like.  Barring an unexpected swing in Prentiss or HUGE turnout in Desoto, I think Childers has won this.

    1. In webster, we actually performed worse in total vote margin this time around.    

      1. as to whether Davis’ base would be stronger than Childers’, for example if Childers sweeps Prentiss county, but Davis sweeps DeSoto. Due to the higher population in DeSoto, would Davis carrying his home county offset any massive sweep Childers has in his?

        1. but we don’t know which precinsts are reporting, so it’s impossible to say whether or not Childers is gaining or losing from last time for sure.

          1. McCain still gets less than 80% of primary votes in some states despite no candidate actively for a couple months now and noone cares.  

            Those who Clinton BS about Obama not winning over white voters is complete crap.  Obama won countless states in the midwest which are nearly entirely white like KS and NE.  He’s also crushing Hillary in every poll among whites in OR.

  59. LaFayette has flipped to us: going from 44-51 to 53-47.  The county is all in.

    Choctaw is done.  Childers turned a plurality in a majority, 47-47 to 53-47.

  60. word was that de soto needed more ballots, and they started with 17k. That leaves about 9k outstanding.

    Chickens. Counting. Hatching.

    1. Davis’ magic number in Lowndes is 53%…he won 53%-44%…he needs to win it somewhere in the neighborhood of 55%-45% to keep at pace with April.  

      1. Childers gained roughly 3500 in Prentiss and Davis gained about 8000 in DeSoto last time.

  62. with 27/38 in, we’re down by 6200 votes in desoto

    considering it was 8000 last time, and there’s increased turnout, it’s likely the rest of desoto will tie it up, then prentiss will blow it our way

  63. …..this is almost like Nevada….where one county in the entire state can offset an overwhelming partisan advantage in the rest of the state.  Hopefully, Davis comes up short, but my predicted one-point margin for Childers is looking to hold up pretty well.

  64. Childers still has that 1000 edge in Clay and probably 3500+ in Prentiss.

  65. with everything in… last time we got 59% and netted about 1700 votes, this time it’s about the same… davis is running out of opportunities to make significant improvements on last time

  67. Same percentage for Childers.  Davis gained ground.  However, the raw vote margin increased.

  70. Childers wins Benton 71-29, up from 67-30.

    Grenada goes for Davis again, but to a lesser extent.  Davis goes from a 200 vote win a to a 38 vote win there.

  71. Of the counties fully in, Childers has outperformed compared to three weeks ago, net-vote wise, in all but two.  He’s done much better in a few.  Things look good!

  74. It looks like Childers has won by ~6,000 votes.  The big assumptions here are that Prentiss looks like it did a few weeks ago, and DeSoto’s last precincts are representative of earlier ones.  Given the turnout increase in general, there’s a potential for more than that margin.

  75. Childers now leading by about 700 votes, but there are only 2 more DeSoto precincts left.

  77. Still got at least probably 3500 in Prentiss and 1000+ in Clay and still other favorable counties except Tate.

  79. Childers now leading by about 700 votes, but there are only 2 more DeSoto precincts left.

  82. counties that have yet to report Childers won 5 of them last time. It is more than Prentiss to give us optimism

  88. Three years ago, I was a college senior, sitting in Poly Sci 235: Elections and Voting Patterns class. I had pointed out this was one of the districts the Democrats could never win. My professor wasn’t so sure, but I made a case it would NEVER be in the hands of the Democrats.

    The egg on my face tastes REALLY GOOD RIGHT NOW

    236 Democrats

    199 Republicans

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